Covid-19 will be there till 2024..& there will be a 5th wave !

…… but not later than stipulated period of 8 week… what it indicates ??? Mean…

In my little knowledge, I mean, this is a caution… and the action need to be taken before completion of 8 weeks or 56 days. If at any case, the action is taken after this stipulated time period, then the action will be no mean or may be resulted in Zero factor.

This was the notification on 22 Mar 2021, for maintaining the duration between 2 vaccines by Govt. of India to all States/ UTs. Without any scientific temperament, this duration is revised to 12-16 weeks.Now the question arises, which notification was based on research or scientific temperament ? and why the duration extended again and again ? Will be the vaccination effective, if it is given after 8 weeks ? The answers are not still clear to public. The Govt. as a matter of faith, to manage its inefficiency trying to make all non scientific temperaments to scientific ones by asking some of the top scientists to give statement and plausibility arguments in favor of  extending the duration. But the question is, will it lead to fight against Covid-19 and to get victory over it ?

No..No..No…I opine.

Please see the 2 difference in Opinions which proves the Non scientific Temperament and why my answer is NO !

Source-The Hindu 16/05/2021 Page-6	Source-The ToI 16/05/2021 Page-6

Today, India faced the 2^nd wave which is uncontrollable. This happened due to the following reasons.

1. India declared victory over the pandemic on January 28, 2021 without scientific temperament.
2. India withdrew Lock down / Shut down to open its economic activities earlier than others
3. People of India, did not maintain Covid-19 protocol like social distancing, sanitizing, using masks
4. Social functions, offices, factories, everything started running full fledged without protocol
5. India failed drastically vaccinating to all people early.
6. India failed preparedness to tackle Covid-19 joying over its victory where Covid-19 was spreading with new mutants among people

Now, it is seen that, in 1^st week of May, most researchers reported India has not touched its peks and may touch in 2^nd week of may. And on 15^th May 2021, one report published that, India has already witnessed its peak on 21^st April 2021 and there is no need of lockdown In India

Source-Business Std-8th May 2021

Please see the difference which is my concern… which one is a scientific one readers may suggest…

Source- The Sambad, 15th May 2021	Source- The Sambad, 08th May 2021

This kind of non scientific temperament is only possible in India. As like India believed the magic of thali banging, candle lightening, that helped in creation of a wave in mitigating Corona Virus… India’s transformation from a scientific temperament to non scientific one, even the introduction of “gomutra / cow urine” as an antibiotic against some diseases and likewise situations are making another cluster of highly educatedly uneducated fellows, who believed these canards.

Now, according these 2 classes of thoughts, what the nation is going to pay ? Nothing… except inviting 3^rd wave of Covid-19 in 2022, 4^th wave in 2023, and the 5^th wave in 2025. Then what after 2025 ? This is unpredictable. If in 2024, again any non scientific temperament govt. will take charge in India, it might continue….. else, Covid-19 will be controlled only after 2024 by any scientific temperament govt. if comes to power. No body can agree with me… but this is my opinion which need to be cross checked in future. It may happen that, my prediction model may be wrong as like Covid predictions, Monsoon prediction by IIT  Professors and high intellectuals working in highest salary and senior most posts. But, I am having no sorrows if my prediction model fails…as I am just kidding in modeling…

Why my Model predicts such continuation ?

My model based on some facts and figures based on researchers data.  and in addition, I have added a Variable that is “Human Behavior” and “Non Scientific Temperament”  which are the main cause of this prediction. Details are elaborated below.

1. The vaccination policy of giving vaccine after 8 weeks does not show efficacy on vaccinated people scientifically, though may affect psychologically…. Positivity affect by “positive gangs”
2. India will fail vaccinating its all people by the speed the virus spreads and mutates.
3. The present vaccine was effective against B1, but not effective against the new mutants and the Virus is well versed in mutating new new variants.
4. India will withdraw Lockdown /  Shut down based on  non scientific temperaments like declared victory over Covid on January 28, 2021.
5. Indian people are so much educatedly uneducated that, they can never leave their social structure…  rather they will prefer to die with organizing Kumbh…local festivals…in the name of Hindutwa / any religion.
6. Indians like celebrating their biggest festivals that is “Elections” and every year, there are elections either Panchayati Raj or Assembly….like in 2022 UP election coming. And our Election Commission gives permits to celebrate this function without Covid guidelines helping virus to create new mutants.
7. In the same pace, India failed to focus on R & D to innovate anything against Covid.. rather depending on other Country research making its make in India.. the greatest failure ever.
8. Indian people cant confine them selves in limited space with limited people due to social nature.
9. Opposition people oppose every move of Govt. either good for public or bad , not matters to them.
10. And lastly, Indian people lost their academics to non scientific temperaments adopting in the name of Caste and religion… going back to pre independence era. And will try to drink “cow urine” and eat “cow dungs” or “jadibutis” or “Yoga to get rid of virus”

Source-The Business Standard, 07/04/2021

Source- The Hindu-10/05/2021

Details explanation of above assumptions :

As basing on this immature data, India will withdraw its lock down/ Shut down, let it by October month. And as like last year will reopen everything for boosting of its economy. But, it is fact that Covid virus will not be complete over by this 2021. Once the lock down / shut down will be with drawn, we have not many Police force to implement the Covid-19 guidelines like social distancing, compulsory mask etc.  and by the way, if , only 1 person will remain Covid +ve, he will create the Chain and help rising the infection as like 2^nd wave. And administering Presidential Rule to implement Covid-19 guidelines in all areas, from Rural to Urban and Metros is just next to impossible in India.

So, failure in vaccination, in effective vaccination, not adherence of Covid-19 protocol after lock down over, and finally adoption of non scientific temperaments and celebration of social structure and largest festival-elections… will definitely lead to 3^rd wave in 2022, 4^th wave in 2023 and 5^th wave in 2024.

What to do to overcome this prediction or to prove this model a failure one ?

The following proposals are given to reject the hypothesis (Country will face 5^th wave).

1. Either present Lock down / Shut down need to be continued till complete vaccination
2. Vaccination duration should be minimized to max 8 weeks and necessary arrangements should be done .
3. The speed of vaccination should be taken as a mission mode and all people should be vaccinated within 6 months or till not completion lock down should not be withdrawn.
4. If lock down/ shutdown are withdrawn, work from home like culture will be continued and social distancing,   compulsory wearing masks, ban on social gatherings , festivals, rituals will be banned or the present Covid-19 curfew guidelines should be continued.
5. Till complete vaccination, Police forces need to monitor and issue passes for free movements and in case violation, heavy penalties should be collected.
6. India need to be revised its policies and need to be primarily its economy should be based on agriculture and village based industries which will reduce migration and lock downs will have lesser impact on economy.

If any of my readers having difference in my opinion, then they can mail me and we have to wait till 2025 to prove this hypotheses wrong.

Dr. Opinion